Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 June 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity remained low. The day's largest event was a C2/EPL from N13E90 at 1919 UTC. This eruption was from an active region soon to appear on east limb. Visible in x-ray imagery, it is most likely the return of old region 375, the site of M and X class activity last rotation. Elsewhere, two new regions were numbered: Region 394 (N08E22) and Region 395 (N10E62).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Watch the northeast limb for an active center to arrive very soon.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind radial speed increased around midday, from 500 to 650 km/s. A large coronal hole is now rotating into a geoeffective location. The greater than 2 MeV geosynchronous electron flux was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at generally active levels for the next three days, punctuated by episodes of minor storm conditions. Effects of the high speed solar wind should persist through the interval.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Jun 119
  Predicted   27 Jun-29 Jun  125/130/130
  90 Day Mean        26 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun  014/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jun  015/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun  015/020-020/025-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%50%50%
Minor storm10%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%55%55%
Minor storm15%30%30%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%

All times in UTC

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