Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 July 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. A number of C-class
flares, as well as an M1.4/Sf at 12/1906UTC (with an associated Type
II radio sweep) erupted from an area on the east limb at N15. This
active region has not yet been numbered. Several large filaments in
the northwest and southwest quadrants erupted early in the period.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The active region on the east limb at N15 will most
likely continue to produce C and M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels. The
increased activity is most likely due to the effects of high speed
solar wind stream from a coronal hole rotating into geoeffective
position.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Isolated major storm
conditions may occur on day two as a result of transient passage
from the M3.6 x-ray flare that occurred on 10 July.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jul 122 Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 125/120/120 90 Day Mean 12 Jul 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 036/046 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 035/048 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 024/025-030/040-024/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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