Viewing archive of Monday, 21 July 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. The multiple C-class flare
activity from Region 410 (S12W40) slowed down considerably during
the latter half of this period. This large beta-gamma region is
showing some decay. The central portion of the region is starting to
fragment and the delta configuration no longer exist. Region 417
(S21W49) developed in both size and area and produced occasional
minor C-class subflares. A 16 degree, NE-SW filament erupted from
near disk center at around 21/0900Z. Faint ejecta was observed on
LASCO imagery, but the event is not likely to be geoeffective. The
remaining regions were uneventful.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a small chance for an M-class flare from Region 410.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed was near
600 km/s early in the period, which accounted for the active
periods. Speed declined to near 450 km/s by the end of the period.
The field responded to the declining solar wind speed by returning
to mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reach high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods over the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 156 Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 155/155/155 90 Day Mean 21 Jul 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 016/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 012/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 010/015-010/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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