Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 431 (S13E17)
produced multiple low level B and C-class flares throughout the
period. A rapid growth in penumbra has nearly quadrupled areal
coverage in the past 24 hours (currently over 500 millionths). A
delta magnetic structure has also become apparent in the
northwestern portion of spot cluster. Region 424 (S18W80) has begun
to exit the west limb and produced only B-class flare activity
during the period. Region 432 (S05E71) was newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 431 is rapidly becoming capable of
producing an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
elevated conditions are in response to a favorably positioned
coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Active conditions
are possible during nighttime hours, especially at high latitudes on
day one of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Aug 131 Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 13 Aug 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 017/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 015/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 012/020-010/012-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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