Viewing archive of Friday, 15 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 431 (S11W13)
exhibited little change in the past twenty-four hours. This region
continues to produce numerous C-class flares with the largest one a
C7 at 15/0018Z. Region 431 has decreased slightly in area coverage
but maintains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Analysis
of Region 433's (S19E10) growth and development indicates that the
trailing and leading spots are two separate regions. The trailing
spots were numbered as New Region 434 (S23E02).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 431 has the potential for M-class
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Two periods of
active conditions was observed. Solar wind speed remains elevated
near 600 km/s and Bz was mostly northward.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are
possible while solar wind speed remain elevated. Wind speed is
expected to decrease on day one.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 131 Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 135/130/130 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 012/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 010/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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