Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 431 produced two
M-class flares, an M2/1n at 19/0759 UTC and an M2/2f at 19/1006 UTC.
The second M-flare was associated with a CME observed in LASCO
images to be directed to the southwest. Region 436 (N08E42) produced
a C5/Sf flare at 19/1826 UTC. Other disk regions were quiet. New
Region 437 (S22W27) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. A small M-class flares is possible in Region 431 or
436.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from major storm to quiet levels. The
CME-induced disturbance that occurred yesterday appears to have
ended. The field has been at unsettled to quiet levels since about
19/0600 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 48 hours. Active
conditions may start on 22 August in response to a recurrent
high-speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 117 Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 115/110/105 90 Day Mean 19 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 046/086 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 015/015-015/015-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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