Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Activity was at very low levels. Region 441 (N11E19)
produced a B6 flare at 23/0016Z. Region 441 has shown some growth
in area coverage during the past twenty-four hours. Region 436
(N07W12) remains relatively unchanged from yesterday. At around
23/0100Z a 15 degree solar filament lifted off at N09W47. New
Region 444 (N09E60) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Regions 436 and 441 have the potential for
C-class flare and a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels.
Solar wind speed was near 775 km/s for most of the period and Bz was
predominantly southward with peak values near -6 nT. For a fifteen
hour period today, activity was at minor storm levels with one
period at major storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Active to minor
storm levels are expected on day one as coronal hole high speed
stream effects continue. By day two and day three high speed stream
effects should begin to diminish with unsettled to active levels
expected.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 120 Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 120/122/125 90 Day Mean 23 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 025/043 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 045/045 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 025/035-020/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 45% | 40% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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