Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 453 (S23W69)
produced occasional point brightenings and some weak surging, but
was otherwise stable. New Region 455 (S16E32) was numbered today. No
other significant activity was observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. Low C-class flares are possible from Region 453.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with very isolated
active periods. A high speed coronal hole stream that has been in
effect over the past few days continues to subside, declining to
near 550 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels through day one. A
recurrent coronal hole will move into geoeffective position late on
day two through day three and produce occasional active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 105 Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 105/100/095 90 Day Mean 06 Sep 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 009/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 010/012-012/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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