Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels today.
Region 456 (S09W19) produced several low level B-class flares today.
This region has shown rapid spot growth over the past 24 hours.
Magnetic analysis depicts a gamma structure in the trailing polarity
of the spot cluster. Region 457 (S11W06) remains a magnetically
simple complex with several small umbra visible in white light. No
new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 456 is showing potential for C-class
flare production.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A favorably
positioned recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is responsible
for the elevated conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to active levels through day
one of the period. The return of quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Sep 099 Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 105/110/110 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 017/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 020/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 012/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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