Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. A single C-class event, a C1 at
0801 UTC, marked the most significant activity of the day. There
are five spotted regions on the disk and all are simple and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. The
effects of the high speed -- 850 km/s -- solar wind continue again
today. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels early, then calm to
unsettled to active conditions by the end of the forecast interval.
The influence of the high speed solar wind stream should diminish
over the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Sep to 21 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Sep 109 Predicted 19 Sep-21 Sep 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 18 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep 035/061 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep 025/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep 020/035-015/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep to 21 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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