Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 464 has produced
several C-class flares, including a C1.3/Sf at 27/1143 UTC and a
C1.3/Sf at 1204 UTC. This Region is stable in size and magnetic
complexity. New Region 469 (S09W24) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 464 has the potential to produce C-class and isolated M-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. Solar
wind speed from a coronal hole in geoeffective position continued to
decrease to below 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions all three days.
Isolated minor storm conditions are possible day one due to the last
remaining effects of the coronal hole passing out of geoeffective
position.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Sep 130 Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 130/125/125 90 Day Mean 27 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 011/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 012/020-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 04% | 04% | 04% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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