Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 October 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. The two spotted
regions on the solar disk are stable and have not produced any
significant activity during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm conditions.
The elevated activity is a result of the continued rise in the solar
wind velocity and sustained southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately at active to minor storm conditions
with isolated major storm conditions possible. These effects are
expected due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 092 Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 012/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 025/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 025/040-025/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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