Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 October 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Today's flare activity
consisted of a few B-class events. There are currently only two,
small sunspot groups on the solar disk. Some minor surging and
brightenings were observed on East limb at about N18.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Solar wind data show the continuation of a high speed stream
associated with a favorably positioned coronal hole. There was a
gradual decreasing tendency in the velocities today, with initial
values around 620 km/s decreasing to around 560 km/s by the end of
the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next 24 hours as the high speed
solar wind stream continues. A slight decline to unsettled to active
is expected on day two, and predominantly unsettled levels are
expected on day three.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 095 Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 16 Oct 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 022/042 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 025/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 020/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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