Viewing archive of Friday, 14 November 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of
occasional low level C-class and upper level B-class flares, all
from Region 501 (N05E61). The region consists of two dominant
penumbral areas that are stacked on top of each other. Both of these
areas appear to have mixed magnetic polarities making for a delta
magnetic classification. The region does not appear to be growing or
decaying. New Region 502 (N05E41) was assigned to the spots that are
about 20 degrees west of the main part of Region 501. Region 502 is
a simple, small beta type sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a good chance for M-class activity out of
Region 501, and there is a slight chance for major flare activity as
well.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels.
Mostly minor storm levels predominated beginning at 13/2100 UTC
through 14/1500 UTC. Solar wind signatures continue to indicate high
speed, low density, high temperature solar wind with an oscillating
but mostly negative interplanetary magnetic field Z-component (Bz),
all consistent with an ongoing coronal hole driven solar wind
stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next two days
(14-15 November). A decline to mostly active is expected on the
third day (16 November). The effects are expected due to the
continued influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 099 Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 028/042 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 028/036 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 025/035-020/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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