Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 525 (N09E56)
produced a C8.6/Sf at 0313Z. Two new regions were numbered today;
Region 526 (N12W54) and Region 527 (S15W41).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Active regions observed on EIT imagery just beyond the east limb may
increase the level of solar activity beginning 20 December.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Solar wind speed
observed at ACE continued a gradual decline to below 500 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit continued
at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. A coronal hole rotating into
geoeffective position on 19 December may produce elevated solar wind
speed, resulting in isolated active to minor storm conditions in the
geomagnetic field on 19-20 December.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Dec 118 Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 125/130/135 90 Day Mean 17 Dec 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 010/012-015/018-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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