Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. Occasional C-class flares were
observed from Regions 525 (N08W22) and 528 (N09E09). The largest
flare of the period was a C6 flare from Region 525 at 23/1024Z. This
region showed little change over the past 24 hours and continues to
exhibit some minor mixing of polarity. Region 528 is maintaining its
steady growth phase and now exceeds 500 millionths of white light
areal coverage in a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. No
significant changes were observed in the remaining active regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a chance for an M-class flare from Regions 525 and 528.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The coronal hole high
speed stream that began on 21 December, has now rotated out of a
geoeffective position. Solar wind speed declined from a maximum of
near 650 km/s on 22 December, to approximately 500 km/s at the end
of this period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| Class M | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Dec 142 Predicted 24 Dec-26 Dec 145/150/150 90 Day Mean 23 Dec 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec 018/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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