Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels today.
Region 528 (N10W44) underwent little change today and was quiescent
throughout the period. No significant activity was reported from
the active regions today. No new regions were numbered this period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 528 remains capable of producing minor M-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Updated
SOHO/LASCO imagery depicted a weak partial halo CME that was
believed to be from the long duration C5/Sf flare from 25 December.
A weak transient was observed passing the ACE spacecraft at
approximately 27/0900Z resulting in unsettled conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled
conditions possible throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Dec 127 Predicted 28 Dec-30 Dec 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 27 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 010/012-008/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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