Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 January 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Solar activity remained at low levels today. Regions
536 (S12W54) and 537 (N05E11) produced lesser B and C-class flares
today. Region 536 continues to show steady decay. The beta-gamma
magnetic structure remains evident. Region 537 has changed little
since yesterday, a few satellite spots in the eastern most portion
of the cluster have vanished during the period. A slight
counter-clockwise rotation in the spot group is evident in white
light analysis. The beta-gamma/delta magnetic complex remains
intact. CME activity was seen on SOHO/LASCO imagery emanating from
just beyond the solar northeast limb, in the vicinity of where old
Region 528 is due to return on 14 January. SXI imagery indicates
potential for an active region beyond the solar southeast limb as
coronal surging has been common place through much of the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. A slight chance for an isolated major flare
still exists due to the magnetic complexity of both Regions 536 and
537.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A favorably
positioned coronal hole high speed stream continues to enhance field
conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be a quiet to active levels. Periods of isolated minor
storming are possible in nighttime sectors of high latitudes. The
geoeffective coronal hole should start to wane by 13 January with
predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions to follow.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 119
Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 120/125/130
90 Day Mean 11 Jan 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 020/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 015/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 40% | 35% | 20% |
Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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