Solar activity decreased to very low levels today. An impressive filament eruption, seen on SOHO/EIT imagery, was observed early in the period in the solar northwestern quadrant of the disk. An associated CME appears too much north-west directed to become geoeffective. A previous filament eruption (early on 21 Jan) and the associated CME that occurred in the solar southeastern quadrant may produce a weak geoeffective glancing blow. Flare activity was limited to a few low level B-class flares today. Regions 540 (S14W48) and 544 (N08W17) retain a gamma magnetic structure while Regions 542 (N10W29) and 543 (N16W34) appear to have lost their associated gamma features. Decay in penumbral coverage or magnetic structure appeared to be the theme in all the active spotted regions during the period. No new regions were numbered today.

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels. A shock passage was observed to pass the ACE spacecraft around 22/0100Z as the solar wind speed jumped from 475 km/s to near 700 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field held primarily north until near 22/0900Z when a sudden southward movement (which remained south thereafter for several hours) occurred and the ensuing severe storm conditions were seen at all latitudes. A 33 nT sudden impulse was recorded on the Boulder magnetometer at 22/0140Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels early in the period.

The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels. Higher latitudes may experience isolated minor storm conditions into 23 Jan due to today's shock passage. A glancing blow from the CME resulting from the filament eruption in the solar southeastern quadrant earlier on 21 Jan may produce brief minor storm conditions on 24 Jan. The remainder of the period should experience predominantly unsettled to isolated active levels.

  Observed       22 Jan 122
  Predicted   23 Jan-25 Jan  120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        22 Jan 136

  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan  008/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jan  035/065
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  015/025-010/015-010/015