Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 February 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels in the last minutes of the period. Region 554 (S08E62) produced an M1/Sf event at 08/2051Z. Multiple B and C-class flares where attributed to this region during the period. This region has recently rotated onto the visible solar disk and may have a weak gamma magnetic structure in the trailing portion of the sunspot cluster, currently analyzed as a beta group. Region 551 (S06W14) continues to show steady growth in penumbral coverage and continued counter-clockwise rotation of the intermediate sunspots was evidenced once again during the interval. A single lesser B-class flare was the extent of flare activity in this region today. Spotless active Region 553 (S04W38) managed to produce a C1 x-ray flare at 08/0452Z. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 551 and 554 have the potential to produce isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions may be possible in the nighttime sectors throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Feb 116
  Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb  120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        08 Feb 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  005/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Feb  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  008/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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