Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 February 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 564 has produced a number of minor C-class flares, the largest of which was at C1.9 at 22/2000Z. Region 564 has grown considerably over the past twenty four hours and may be developing a magnetic delta configuration in its intermediate spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 564 is likely to produce more C-class flares. If the polarity mixing in the intermediate spots continue, a chance for isolated M-class flares will increase.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible from a weak recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Feb 104
  Predicted   23 Feb-25 Feb  105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        22 Feb 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb  004/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Feb  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb  010/012-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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