Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 February 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 564(N15E00) continues to increase in size, reaching 470 millionths today. The magnetic complexity of Region 564 remains relatively unchanged. A slight increase in X-ray background levels was observed starting around 1300Z. New Region 566(N05E21) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 564 has the potential for C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Feb 106
  Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb  110/115/115
  90 Day Mean        24 Feb 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Feb  010/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  010/012-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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