Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 March 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 088 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of a few, low-level C-class flares. Most of these were from Region 582 (N15E30) which is the largest region on the disk and appears to be growing slowly. New Region 587 (S13E73) rotated into view today as a bright, moderately sized (110 millionths) bipolar region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event sometime during the next three days (28-30 March) with Region 582 the most likely source for energetic activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active, with a minor storm period from 0300-0600 UTC. Solar wind data show the continued presence of a high speed stream. There was an overall decreasing trend in solar wind velocity: initial speeds around 900 km/s declined to around 650 km/s by forecast issue time. Fluctuations in the interplanetary magnetic field were weak (-6 to + 6 nT), and disappeared altogether between 1300-2000 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next two days (28-29 March). A decrease to predominantly unsettled is expected by the third day (30 March).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Mar 129
  Predicted   29 Mar-31 Mar  125/120/120
  90 Day Mean        28 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar  012/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Mar  018/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  015/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%10%

All times in UTC

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