Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 May 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Occasional B-class flares were observed in Regions 603 (S16W90) and 605 (S12W16). Region 605 continues in a slow growth phase and currently exhibits minor magnetic complexity. No other significant activity was noted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 605 has potential for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A high speed coronal hole stream became geoeffective late in the period. Solar wind speed increased from near 450 km/s to approximately 580 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels. A minor disturbance associated with a high speed coronal hole stream will likely result in unsettled to active periods through 6 May. Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 7 and 8 May.
III. Event Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 May 089
  Predicted   06 May-08 May  090/095/095
  90 Day Mean        05 May 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  006/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 May  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  015/015-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm30%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

All times in UTC

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