Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 May 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 609 (S03E24) produced three C-class flares including a C7/Sf at 13/1330Z. This region underwent rapid growth in the past 36 hours and now exhibits a moderately complex beta-gamma configuration. CME activity was observed off the east limb. New Regions 612 (N10E07) and 613 (S08E83) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Region 609 will likely produce C-class activity and may soon possess potential for M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with an isolated active to minor storm period between 13/0600 - 0900Z. Occasional periods of sustained southward IMF Bz account for the most disturbed periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 May 101
  Predicted   14 May-16 May  105/110/115
  90 Day Mean        13 May 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 May  012/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  010/012-010/015-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%30%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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