Viewing archive of Monday, 17 May 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 614 (S08W89) generated
the largest flare of the past day, a C7/Sf at 17/0417 UTC. Region
609 (S03W31) continued to decay and produced only B-class flares.
New Region 617 (S12E11) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
C-class flares are possible in Regions 609 and 614.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. NOTE: The ACE spacecraft orbit
will bring ACE nearly in line with the Sun from about 30 May to 02 June, 2004. During that time solar radio noise is expected to interfere
with spacecraft telemetry resulting in the loss of solar wind
plasma, magnetic field, and particle data.
III. Event Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 May 111 Predicted 18 May-20 May 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 17 May 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 005/008-005/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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