Viewing archive of Monday, 31 May 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 618 (S10W83) produced 5 C-class flares, including a C6.5/Sf at 31/0028 UTC. No significant development was observed from any of the regions on the visible disk, and no new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 618 may still produce C-class flares before disappearing tomorrow behind the west limb. Region 621 (S15E38) is capable of C-class flares as well.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Solar wind speed has slowly increased over the past four days from 350 km/s to about 500 km/s, indicating the possible beginning effects of a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for all three days (1-3 June), with isolated minor storm conditions on 1 and 2 June from the effects of the geoeffective coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun
Class M20%10%10%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 May 095
  Predicted   01 Jun-03 Jun  100/090/090
  90 Day Mean        31 May 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 May  011/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 May  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun  015/015-015/015-012/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%20%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%10%

All times in UTC

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