Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 June 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels today.
Region 621 (S14W70) produced the largest flare of the period, a
B8/Sf flare that occurred at 08/1847Z. White light shows a pair of
umbra spots in an alpha magnetic configuration. Region 627 (S08W09)
underwent a slight growth in sunspot area during the period with no
flare production noted. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Regions 621 and 627 have the potential to
produce C-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. The anticipated arrival
of a shock resulting from the long duration C2 flare that occurred
on 7 June is expected no later than 10 June. Active conditions with
a chance of minor storm levels may be observed, especially at higher
latitudes, following the onset of the shock. 11 June will most
likely return to quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jun 086 Predicted 09 Jun-11 Jun 085/090/095 90 Day Mean 08 Jun 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 010/015-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 06% | 02% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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