Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 June 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels today.
Region 635 (S12W27) continued on a decaying trend today while
maintaining a delta structure in the trailing spot cluster.
Multiple B-class flares were produced from this region throughout
the period. Region 634 (N12W44) underwent significant decay in
sunspot area during the period although it continues to retain a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 635 remains capable of producing an
isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jun 117 Predicted 23 Jun-25 Jun 115/110/110 90 Day Mean 22 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 003/007-004/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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