Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 June 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 635 (S11W53) produced two C-class flares, a C1.4/Sf at 24/0559 UTC and a C1.7/Sf at 24/0621 UTC. Region 635 maintained a beta-gamma-delta configuration while growing slightly in size. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 635 is expected to produce C-class flares, and isolated M-class flares are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for all three days (25-27 June), with periods of isolated active and minor storm conditions on day three (27 June) as Earth comes under the influence of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
Class M45%45%40%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Jun 108
  Predicted   25 Jun-27 Jun  100/095/095
  90 Day Mean        24 Jun 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun  002/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Jun  003/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun  004/012-005/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%30%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%35%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%

All times in UTC

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