Viewing archive of Friday, 9 July 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jul 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 642 (S07E39) has
grown slightly in both sunspot count and white light coverage. It
was responsible for the only low level B-class flare in the past 24
hours. Continued CME activity were observed from the SOHO/LASCO
imagery. These appear to be backside events and not directed toward
Earth. A new region was numbered today as Region 643 (S08W07).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for Region 642 to produce a C-class
event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 087 Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 090/100/110 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 001/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 005/008-008/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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