Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 August 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. The daily consensus
for Region 655 (S10W38) and 656 (S13E58) have them both exceeding
200 millionths of white light coverage with a magnetic beta
configuration. These regions remain fairly stable only producing
low level B-class flares. A new region was numbered today as Region
658 (S06E50).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 655 and 656 could produce an isolated C-class
event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels with a
period of minor storm conditions observed at 07/0900 UTC. Solar
wind speed has increased from around 340 km/s yesterday to above 460
km/s today and the IMF Bz has fluctuated southward as far as -14 nT.
The conditions seem to be influenced by a coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated periods of active
conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 095 Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 07 Aug 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 003/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 010/015-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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