Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 August 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity continues to be very low. Minor B-class
activity was observed in Region 661 (N06W47). This region, which
still maintains over 400 millionths of white light area coverage, is
in a slow decay phase. With the exception of Region 665 (N04W15),
which was numbered today, all active regions were stable or in
decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a small chance of a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with isolated minor storm
periods. The disturbed periods are due to a slightly elevated solar
wind speed and a predominantly southward IMF Bz. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods at
high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Aug 115 Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 22 Aug 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 014/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 012/015-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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