Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 August 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 25 0050 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A bright surge associated
with a B6 x-ray event was observed near S07 on the east limb at
24/1352Z. A CME was also observed in association with this event.
The likely source of this activity was old Region 655 (S09, L=177),
which is due to rotate into view tomorrow. All active regions on the
visible disk were stable or in decay. No other significant activity
was noted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. The new region rotating into view on the southeast limb
may boost activity levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three
days.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Aug 105 Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 24 Aug 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 010/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 005/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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