Viewing archive of Monday, 13 September 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Sep 13 2230 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been low. A C1.1 X-ray flare
occurred from Region 667 (S10W85) at 12/2227 UTC. A C1.0 flare
occurred from Region 669 (S04W81) at 13/0008 UTC. A C1.4 flare
occurred from Region 672 (N04E22) at 1339 UTC. No significant
development was observed from regions on the visible disk. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class flares from Region 672 are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. A shock passage
was observed at ACE at approximately 13/1935 UTC. Magnetic field at
ACE was observed to increase significantly to over 20 nT at the time
of the shock arrival at ACE, although Bz remained about zero. A 24
nT sudden impulse was observed at 2003 UTC. A 10 MeV proton event
occurred at 2005 UTC in association with the sudden impulse.
Unsettled magnetic conditions were observed subsequent to the sudden
impulse.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at minor to major storming levels on 14 September,
due to the effects of a CME arrival. Conditions should subside to
quiet to active levels on 15 and 16 of September, although isolated
minor storm conditions are possible on those days from the effects
of a geoeffective coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 99% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Sep 118 Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 13 Sep 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 001/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 015/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 040/050-020/030-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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