Viewing archive of Friday, 1 October 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Oct 088
  Predicted   02 Oct-04 Oct  090/095/095
  90 Day Mean        01 Oct 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Oct  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct  005/008-008/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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