Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 October 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity continued at very low levels with occasional B-class flares. Region 682 (S14E10) has shown some decay in white light area coverage, but still maintains minor magnetic complexity. New Region 683 (S09E22) emerged as a C type group early in the period. New Region 684 (S04E65) was also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated minor C-class flares are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Very stable solar wind conditions persisted through the period. Solar wind speed declined to near 300 km/s and IMF Bz remains near zero. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high, and has been at high levels since 14 October.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible on 19 October due to a weak high speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Oct 092
  Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct  095/090/090
  90 Day Mean        17 Oct 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Oct  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  008/010-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%25%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/11/06X2.39
Last M-flare2024/11/11M1.3
Last geomagnetic storm2024/11/10Kp5+ (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
October 2024166.4 +25
November 2024175.7 +9.3
Last 30 days164.2 +19.1

This day in history*

Solar flares
12002M4.27
22012M2.91
31999M2.46
42001M2.39
51999M1.61
DstG
11981-124G3
21960-95G4
31978-93G2
42004-92G1
51983-82G2
*since 1994

Social networks