Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 October 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 687 (N10E52) produced multiple C-class flares during the period, the largest was a C9.9 x-ray flare that occurred at 21/1948Z. At 21/0040Z this region produced a C7/Sf flare with an associated CME that was observed in LASCO. The CME does not appear to be Earth-directed. Close scrutiny of available data indicates that the penumbral area of Region 687 is a single polarity structure yielding a CSO beta-gamma sunspot classification. Region 682 (S13W46) produced two C-class flares during the period, a C1/Sf that occurred at 21/1442Z and a C4/Sf event occurring at 21/1522Z. Although the overall sunspot count went down the sunspot distribution of intermediate spots matured during the period which accounts for the compact classification. Region 689 (N12E74) seen on the solar east limb was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 682 and 687 are both capable of producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
Class M50%50%50%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Oct 112
  Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct  115/120/115
  90 Day Mean        21 Oct 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  009/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Oct  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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