Viewing archive of Friday, 12 November 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity dropped to very low levels. Region 696 (N08W87) is in decay and rotating quietly around the west limb. A weak Type II radio sweep (553 km/s) followed a B7 flare in Region 699 (S14E27). A faint CME was observed off the SE limb, which was not Earth directed. No other significant changes were noted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels with major storm periods at high latitudes. This disturbance is due to the CME activity on 09 and 10 November. Solar wind speed ranged from 550 to over 700 km/s, but was trending down during the latter half of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event continues. The proton event began on 07/1910Z, following the X2 flare on 07/1606Z. The peak was 495 pfu at 08/0115Z and the current flux is ranging between 20 - 30 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 13 November. Predominantly quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 14 and 15 November. The greater than 10 MeV proton event in progress now is expected to gradually decline to below the event threshold on 13 November.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
Class M20%10%10%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton99%10%01%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Nov 097
  Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov  090/090/095
  90 Day Mean        12 Nov 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  022/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Nov  030/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  015/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%15%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%25%25%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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