Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 November 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares during the past 24 hours, a C2 at 0204 UTC from Region 707 (S16E27) and a C1.5/Sf at 0516 UTC from Region 706 (S07E31). Of the four spotted regions on the disk, only Region 707 is growing. The rate of growth in 707 is slow, but the group has some magnetic mixing and is a beta-gamma magnetic class.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next 24 hours (through 28 November) and is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 29-30 November.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Nov 110
  Predicted   28 Nov-30 Nov  110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        27 Nov 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov  016/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Nov  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  005/005-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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