Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 December 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 713 (S09W36) has
decreased in both area and spot number.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity from Region 713.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with an isolated period of
minor storming from 0300Z to 0600Z on 25 December. Active
conditions due to the onset of a geoeffective coronal hole high
speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods
possible at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Dec 093 Predicted 26 Dec-28 Dec 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 25 Dec 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 015/018-015/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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