Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 January 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 008 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been low. There has been a steady
stream of B-class flares with a single C1.0 that occurred 08 Jan at
1957Z. Region 718 (S06E66) remains steady with a low probability
for flare activity. Region 719 (S09E82) was newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flare activity is possible from the
regions near the southeast limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels.
Disturbances in the geomagnetic field early on 08 Jan have been
associated with solar wind transients and interplanetary magnetic
field fluctuations.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. The solar wind transients
should abate by the end of 08 Jan, and have little impact on the
geomagnetic field for 09 through 11 Jan.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 089 Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 090/090/085 90 Day Mean 08 Jan 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 021/037 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 022/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 012/020-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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