Viewing archive of Monday, 10 January 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Solar activity has been very low. Region 719 (S08E55)
remains a two-spot beta magnetic configuration, with several minor
plage fluctuations. Region 718 (S07E46) continues to show no
notable activity. Region 720 (N09E69) was newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 719 continues to have a fair chance for flare
activity, but poses little threat for greater than an isolated
C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels. Interplanetary
magnetic field and solar wind have both been relatively steady for
the last 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. No significant
disturbance anticipated for 11 Jan, but a large coronal hole is
moving into geoeffective position for 12 and 13 Jan. Most of the
high-speed solar wind stream will be above Earth's orbit, and should
only provide a slight potential for active to isolated minor
storming levels.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 090 Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 085/090/090 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 005/008-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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