Viewing archive of Monday, 24 January 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels today. All
three spotted active regions were responsible for the low level
B-class flare activity reported throughout the period. Region 727
(S09E38) was numbered today and is undergoing rapid growth in
penumbral coverage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Continued growth in Region 727 may lead to
C-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jan 095 Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 24 Jan 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 012/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 006/008-005/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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