Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 February 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Occasional B-class flares were observed from an active region rotating around the southeast limb. Region 729 (S11W25) continues to decay and is the only sunspot on the visible disk. A 15 degree filament erupted from near N10W07 at around 03/0600Z, but there does not appear to be any Earth-directed ejecta. Brightness on the southeast and northeast limb indicates additional active regions will soon rotate into view. Old active Region 720 (N13, L-178) is due to rotate into view on 05 February.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Activity levels are expected to increase as active regions rotate into view over the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period between 03/0300 - 0600Z. The solar wind speed remains slightly elevated at just over 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
Class M05%10%15%
Class X01%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Feb 083
  Predicted   04 Feb-06 Feb  090/100/115
  90 Day Mean        03 Feb 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Feb  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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