Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 February 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event of the
period was a C3.7 flare from Region 733 (S08E67) at 07/2244Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. The
heightened activity was due to the effects of a high speed coronal
hole stream. Solar wind speed at ACE has been elevated at
approximately 700 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods
possible due to the continued effects of a high speed coronal hole
stream throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 108 Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 08 Feb 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 019/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 018/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 012/020-010/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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