Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 February 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 733 (S09E01) generated
the day's largest event, a C2 x-ray flare at 1040UTC with associated
Type II sweep. At this time there is no indication of a CME. Region 734 (S04E17) had the other C-class flare, a C1/Sf at
1458UTC. Region 733 is the most dynamic of the five regions currently
visible. The remainder of the disk and limbs were quiet and
unimpressive.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 733 may produce additional C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at GOES was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 116 Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 005/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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