Viewing archive of Friday, 18 February 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 732 (N15W90) and 735
(S09W32) were responsible for several low level C-class flares.
Region 732 produced the largest C-flare; a C2.3 at 17/2344Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 735 is still capable of producing C-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Activity
was due to the effects of a high speed stream from a geoeffective
coronal hole. Solar wind speed at ACE showed an increase to
approximately 600 km/s by 18/1600Z and then decreased slightly to
550 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with the possibility of isolated
minor storm levels on 19 February due to the arrival of the CME
observed on LASCO imagery on 17 February. Expect quiet to active
conditions on 20 February and quiet to unsettled conditions on 21
February.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Feb 104 Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 100/100/095 90 Day Mean 18 Feb 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 017/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 015/030-012/015-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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