Viewing archive of Friday, 11 March 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 11 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 741 (N12W26)
produced a C1.2 flare at 0051 UTC. Region 743 (S07E50) continues
steady growth with an alpha magnetic configuration. No new regions
were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 741 and 742 (S05E17) may produce C-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 12-13 March, with possible
active conditions on 14 March as a small coronal hole moves into
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Mar 105 Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 110/115/120 90 Day Mean 11 Mar 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 010/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 005/005-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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