Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 March 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 16 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 742 (S06W50)
remains the most complex group on the sun, but has produced only
B-class x-ray events. SXI imagery shows an active region just
behind the southeast limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for C-class flares from Region 742.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for active on 17 March
due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Predominantly unsettled
is expected on 18 March, with a return to quiet to unsettled
expected on 19 March.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 105 Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 16 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 012/015-010/012-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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